MoneyPulse — April 2, 2026

Subject: The market is suddenly pricing a hike, not cuts

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Your daily edge on markets, money, and macro.

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Top 3 Market Moves

1. Oil is no longer just an energy story

The IEA warned that the Iran conflict poses a major threat to global supply, and crude is now feeding straight into inflation expectations. This is why the tape feels weird: commodities are acting like a geopolitical panic trade while equities are still half-trading a soft landing.

Why it matters: When oil becomes an inflation shock, the whole market has to reprice, not just energy names.

2. SpaceX just made the IPO market interesting again

Reuters reports SpaceX confidentially filed for a June listing that could value the company around $1.75 trillion and raise as much as $75 billion. That is not a normal IPO; that is a liquidity event big enough to reset risk appetite across venture, public tech, and secondaries.

Why it matters: A mega-deal this large can pull capital toward growth again even while rates are moving the wrong way.

3. The yen is back on global-risk watch

Reuters says the Bank of Japan is openly watching the impact of oil and tariffs, and markets are repricing the odds of another hike later this month. If the BOJ tightens into an oil shock, the yen carry trade starts looking a lot less free.

Why it matters: A stronger yen and tighter Japan policy would hit the exact leverage that has been quietly funding risk assets everywhere.

Macro Stat Most People Missed

Markets briefly priced roughly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by October. Three months ago the conversation was still about cuts.

Why it matters: The bond market is telling you inflation risk came back faster than the stock market wants to admit.

Your One Move Today

Watch the energy-versus-travel spread. If crude keeps climbing while airlines stay bid, that disconnect probably closes with energy up or travel down. XLE around the high-50s and Delta in the mid-60s are the names on my screen.